Happy Independence Day!

I was digging around for something to write about today, when I discovered a little known fact.  (Note: When I say something is a ‘little known fact,’ there’s a good chance that just means I didn’t know it until now.)

My digging began in the vicinity of the Fourth of July—which is, of course, today’s date.  At first, I had the entirely unoriginal idea of presenting you with a list of fun facts about the Fourth of July.  But it’s so easy to turn up pages and pages of fun facts about the Fourth of July in any search engine that it quickly became clear I would simply be listing things you could find out some other way.

No added value.  And we can’t have that.

I did, however, find out something that is slightly harder, although by no means impossible, to suss out.

Four is an honest number.

It may, in fact, be the only honest number.  (I haven’t done all the research, but it seems likely on my initial examination—i.e., two or three minutes of thought.)

What does that mean?

Well, it doesn’t mean that the number four—notwithstanding its ability to bring you Sesame Street on occasion—is capable of chopping down a cherry tree and then refusing to lie about it (George Washington [not]) or of walking miles and miles in the snow to return some change (Abraham Lincoln [probably]).

It means that four is the only number that has the same number of letters in its name as the number for which it stands.  F O U R, 1 2  3 4

It probably won’t take you too long to realize that this is not actually a mathematical concept.  It’s more like a linguistic one.  Because it only works in English.  Well, it might work in some other language.  I don’t speak them all, so I can’t really say.  But it is safe to say that it doesn’t work in every language.  And math, really, kind of has to work whether you speak Patagonian or Serbo-Croatian.

So, it’s kind of a useless idea, it seems to me.

Except to open the door to something else I want to say.

In this election year, we are going to be—already are being—inundated with statistics.  This plan will lead to x number of people without health care.  That plan means that y children are z times more likely to…whatever.

Here’s the thing about statistics.

I spent a lot of years compiling them for various clients, and I’m here to tell you that a) the margin of error is probably greater than they are disclosing—because data analysis is hard and people make mistakes, b) sometimes the analysis is set up in such a way that it leads to a skewed result—because data analysis is hard and people make mistakes, and c) every now and then, if the results aren’t what those who commissioned the analysis really want, they might just change them—because giving up a pet theory is hard and people make mistakes.

So, by all means, pay attention to the statistics.  It’s good to have as much information as you can.  But, in the spirit of Independence Day, remember to preserve some independent thought, and question those statistics.

Four is an honest number.  All others are to be treated with suspicion.

 

(Note:  Here’s another little known fact.  Four is also a Smith number, which piece of information I bring to you because, ha! my last name is Smith.  What I don’t bring to you is an explanation of what a Smith number is.  That’s ‘cause I don’t really understand it.  Shhh!)